A Man Needs A Fish Like A Woman Needs a Bicycle
Tuesday, May 18, 2004

The Great Bush Economy Bet

You want a piece of the action? Read on...

I've made the following long-term bet with Feces Flinging Monkey; he claims the economy will thrive if Bush is reelected, while I remain certain that it will tank instead.

We've got ten bucks on the line. This is serious stuff. Here are the rules:

IF Bush wins in November,

AND there are no major terror attacks in the US,

AND no new, major conflicts overseas,

AND if there are no significant tax increases:

THEN on June 31, 2006, the majority of the following statements will be true:

1) The latest available budget deficit, as a percentage of GDP, will be smaller than the deficit currently predicted here.

2) The budget debt, as a percentage of GDP, will be smaller than the debt currently predicted in the same document.

3) The DOW will exceed 10,800.

The following indicators will be at, or better than (i.e., higher or lower, as appropriate), their average for Clinton's second term:

4) Unemployment (seasonally adjusted)


5) Federal Funds Interest rate


6) 10 Year Treasury rate


7) Inflation


8) GDP growth (real)


9) Personal income (per capita, average of yearly percent change 97-00)


Loser pays ten bucks to a charity of the winner's choice.

You want a piece of this? Just send an email to ottersoftheuniverse and tell me which side of the bet you want; if you want the other side, I'll put you in touch with the poop throwing monkey (or you can go and email the handsome primate yourself at BushBet@FecesFlingingMonkey.com and you can work it out for yourselves). If you like the bet, feel free to copy the code and put it on your own website.

(Technical note: Yeah, we know that we have 'averaged averages' here to calculate our targets, but that's close enough for a bar bet!)

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Thoughts on What One Experiences These Days

01/01/2004 - 02/01/2004 / 02/01/2004 - 03/01/2004 / 03/01/2004 - 04/01/2004 / 04/01/2004 - 05/01/2004 / 05/01/2004 - 06/01/2004 / 10/01/2004 - 11/01/2004 / 11/01/2004 - 12/01/2004 / 01/01/2005 - 02/01/2005 / 02/01/2005 - 03/01/2005 / 03/01/2005 - 04/01/2005 / 05/01/2005 - 06/01/2005 / 07/01/2005 - 08/01/2005 / 09/01/2005 - 10/01/2005 / 10/01/2005 - 11/01/2005 / 11/01/2005 - 12/01/2005 / 01/01/2006 - 02/01/2006 / 02/01/2006 - 03/01/2006 / 05/01/2006 - 06/01/2006 /


Blogs I Read


Mike Spenis

Megan McArdle

Juan Cole

Joshua Micah Marshall



Emperor Misha I

Andrew Sullivan

Bob Somersby

John Quiggin

John Rogers


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